{"id":15988,"date":"2020-10-16T14:23:33","date_gmt":"2020-10-16T06:23:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/harianhalmahera.com\/?p=15988"},"modified":"2020-10-16T14:23:33","modified_gmt":"2020-10-16T06:23:33","slug":"setelah-uu-ssw","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/harianhalmahera.com\/?p=15988","title":{"rendered":"Setelah UU SSW"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Oleh : Dahlan Iskan<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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DENGAN<\/strong> redanya demo anti UU Cipta Kerja dua-tiga hari belakangan ini sekali lagi menunjukkan bahwa pemerintah benar-benar kuat\u2013secara politik.<\/p>\n

Tapi itu tidak akan ada artinya kalau Jokowi belum pernah bisa menunjukkan kekuatannya di sektor satu ini: ekonomi.<\/p>\n

Kekuatannya di politik ini bisa jadi hanya menyimpan bara yang panas di bawah permukaan.<\/p>\n

Memang, bara itu bisa dipadamkan. Atau jangan-jangan tidak. Tapi bara di bawah permukaan itu hanya bisa padam oleh dua siaraman.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Pertama,\u00a0 kesungguhan dalam mempermudah semua jenis usaha \u2013termasuk UMKM.<\/p>\n

UU Cipta Kerja ini bisa jadi hanya monumen mati jika pelaksanaan di lapangannya jauh panggang dari api. Kita sudah biasa melihat banyaknya peraturan yang\u00a0 baik \u2013tapi tidak begitu\u00a0praktiknya.<\/p>\n

Kedua, bila pertumbuhan ekonomi benar-benar meroket. Kalau ekonomi ternyata biasa-biasa saja, bara itu akan kian panas.<\/p>\n

Untuk yang pertama itu pemerintah akan menghadapi dirinya sendiri: birokrasi yang sebesar kapal Titanic ini. Bisakah nakhoda kapal besar itu membelokkannya. Secara tiba-tiba. Tanpa oleng. Apalagi tenggelam.<\/p>\n

Kecepatan membuat UU ini mengagumkan. Cara meredam penentang UU ini juga menunjukkan nyali yang tinggi.<\/p>\n

Tapi semua itu hanya akan menjadi cela kalau ternyata tidak bisa menundukkan birokrasinya\u00a0 sendiri.<\/p>\n

Birokrasi yang akan bisa membuat UU ini seperti masakan Padang \u2013enak dipandang sekaligus enak dirasakan.<\/p>\n

Dari ikut diskusi di TV One kemarin malam, saya jadi tahu bahwa peraturan pelaksanaan UU ini ternyata tidak banyak. Hanya 43 peraturan \u201338 peraturan pemerintah dan 5 peraturan presiden.<\/p>\n

Itu berarti pembuatannya juga bisa cepat. Tidak memerlukan persetujuan siapa-siapa. Tinggal presiden sendiri yang perlu tanda tangan.<\/p>\n

Berarti akhir tahun ini pun UU itu bisa dijalankan \u2013lengkap dengan aturan pelaksanaannya.<\/p>\n

Begitu cepat.<\/p>\n

Sekali lagi, tinggal satu masalah ini: sudah siapkah kapal besar kita melakukan manuver sesuai dengan kehendak nakhoda?<\/p>\n

Kalau itu berhasil kita masih harus sukses melakukan siraman kedua. Agar bara itu padam. Siraman kedua ini adalah: pertumbuhan ekonomi. Ini menyangkut eksternal. Yang tidak mudah dikendalikan.<\/p>\n

Kalau kita tidak berhasil membuat pertumbuhan ekonomi tinggi maka kelelahan membuat UU ini tidak terbayarkan.<\/p>\n

Maka sebenarnya kita ingin tahu: dengan senjata baru UU Cipta Kerja ini berapa persenkah pertumbuhan ekonomi yang bisa dihasilkan? Yakni yang bisa menciptakan kerja seperti dimaksudkan di judul UU itu?<\/p>\n

Ternyata, UU inikah yang diandalkan ketika pemerintah merencanakan pertumbuhan ekonomi tahun 2021 sebesar 4 sampai 5 persen?<\/p>\n

Angka pertumbuhan itu disampaikan di dalam pidato presiden di DPR 16 Agustus lalu. Waktu itu saya terkejut \u2013dan agak meragukan. Terutama karena beratnya pandemi ini. Kok begitu beraninya merencanakan pertumbuhan yang begitu tinggi.<\/p>\n

Waktu itu saya tidak menghitung bahwa UU Cipta Kerja ini bisa dikebut secara SSW \u2013set-set wuet<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Namun biar pun sudah ada UU SSW mungkinkah angka 5 persen itu tercapai?<\/p>\n

Pun setelah ada UU SSW, saya masih sulit menebak dari mana investasi sebesar 3 persen dari PDB itu bisa didapat. Padahal tanpa investasi yang besarnya 3 persen dari PDB itu target pertumbuhan tersebut sulit dicapai.<\/p>\n

Maka satu-satunya sumber yang saya lihat hanya ini: Tiongkok. Negara itulah yang secara nyata punya dana lebih. Apalagi kalau Tiongkok akan terus mengurangi tabungannya di Amerika. Untuk dialihkan ke negara lain.<\/p>\n

Tentu Arab Saudi juga punya uang. Berlimpah. Tapi di mana logika ekonominya? Agar\u00a0 petrodolar itu bisa mengalir ke Indonesia?<\/p>\n

Saya tidak menemukan jalurnya yang logis. Saudi akan tetap lebih tertarik untuk menanamkan uangnya di Amerika \u2013bodyguard<\/em>-nya itu. Indonesia bisa dianggap tidak penting di mata Saudi \u2013meski pun kita menganggap Saudi itu penting.<\/p>\n

Rencana investasi Saudi di kilang pun dengan mudahnya\u00a0 batal!<\/p>\n

Lalu di mana logikanya Tiongkok mau menanamkan investasinya di Indonesia?<\/p>\n

Salah satu yang bisa masuk logika adalah di neraca perdagangan. Tiongkok selalu surplus ketika berdagang dengan Indonesia.<\/p>\n

Angka surplus itu yang bisa kita harapkan sebagai sumber investasi Tiongkok di Indonesia. Seperti juga selama ini: Tiongkok selalu menginvestasikan surplus neraca perdagangannya dengan Amerika untuk membeli obligasi di sana.<\/p>\n

Itu berarti hubungan Indonesia-Tiongkok adalah suatu keniscayaan. Kecuali ketika Prabowo yang ke Amerika minggu ini bisa pulang dengan tiba-tiba membawa Donald Trump ke Indonesia.(dis)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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