{"id":9199,"date":"2020-03-10T15:41:49","date_gmt":"2020-03-10T07:41:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/harianhalmahera.com\/?p=9199"},"modified":"2020-03-10T15:41:49","modified_gmt":"2020-03-10T07:41:49","slug":"mbs-tiwikrama","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/harianhalmahera.com\/?p=9199","title":{"rendered":"MbS Tiwikrama"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Oleh : Dahlan Iskan<\/div>\n
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Kejadian<\/strong> ini benar-benar sulit dijelaskan. Kalau pun bisa diuraikan apa penyebabnya tidak bisa dijelaskan apa tujuannya.<\/p>\n

Tiba-tiba saja harga minyak mentah turun drastis-tis-tis-tis.<\/p>\n

Dari yang sudah rendah –sekitar USD 55\/barel– menjadi hanya USD 30 dolar. Senin kemarin.<\/p>\n

Berita virus Corona langsung kalah viral –mungkin juga kalah dalam memperburuk ekonomi dunia.<\/p>\n

Awalnya di sidang OPEC –organisasi negara pengekspor minyak mentah– gagal sepakat. Mungkin karena Presiden Indonesia tidak hadir di sidang itu –Indonesia sudah bukan lagi anggota OPEC. Sejak impornya lebih tinggi dari ekspornya.<\/p>\n

Sidang itu inginnya satu: menaikkan harga minyak dunia. Harga USD 50\/barel dianggap terlalu rendah. Mereka pernah menikmati harga minyak USD 90 dolar\/barel dalam kurun yang panjang. Bahkan pernah di atas USD 100\/barel.<\/p>\n

Negara-negara OPEC pun kebanjiran dolar –menjadi disebut negara petrodolar.<\/p>\n

Masa panen raya itu tidak pernah terjadi lagi sejak lebih lima tahun lalu. Yakni sejak Amerika Serikat menemukan sumber minyak\/gas baru. Tepatnya: sejak Amerika menggalakkan teknologi baru di bidang pengambilan gas.<\/p>\n

Itulah yang disebut\u00a0shale gas<\/em>. Dengan tehnologi baru itu Amerika mampu menyedot gas dari retakan-retakan bebatuan.<\/p>\n

Sejak itu Amerika tidak lagi tergantung dari minyak OPEC. Bahkan Amerika bisa disebut telah swasembada migas. Justru Amerika belakangan menekan Tiongkok untuk mau beli gas dari Amerika.<\/p>\n

Untung ada negara lain yang kian haus energi: Tiongkok, India, Pakistan dan –kecil-kecilan– Indonesia. Meski begitu tetap saja harga minyak mentah tidak bisa balik lagi ke USD 90\/barel.<\/p>\n

Untuk bisa menaikkan lagi harga migas itu OPEC menggunakan ide lama: kurangi produksi. Agar migas agak langka. Lalu harga akan naik dengan sendirinya.<\/p>\n

Ide lama itulah yang juga dibahas di sidang OPEC terakhir –5 Maret kemarin di Austria, kantor pusat OPEC.<\/p>\n

Arab Saudi, sebagai produsen terbesar, sudah bersedia menurunkan produksi minyaknya. Dari 11 juta barel ke 10 juta barel\/hari.<\/p>\n

Tapi negara lain keberatan. Itu karena produksi mereka tidak terlalu banyak. Saudi-lah yang diharapkan menurunkan lebih banyak lagi.<\/p>\n

Belum lagi agenda itu tuntas dibicarakan muncul realitas lain: Rusia.<\/p>\n

Rusia bukanlah anggota OPEC. Kalau hanya anggota OPEC yang menurunkan produksi, itu hanya akan menguntungkan Rusia.<\/p>\n

Maka OPEC juga harus merayu Rusia. Agar mau mengikuti keputusan OPEC.<\/p>\n

Rusia menolak.<\/p>\n

Arab Saudi dan Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) marah. Marah sekali. Ngamuk.<\/p>\n

Saudi bikin keputusan sepihak: banting harga. Jual minyak dengan harga diskon besar-besaran. Tinggal 30 dolar\/barel.<\/p>\n

Saudi juga akan meningkatkan produksi minyaknya. Semaunya pula. Menjadi 12 juta barel\/hari. Penurunan pendapatannya ditutup dari kenaikan produksinya.<\/p>\n

Rusia akan mati.<\/p>\n

Amerika akan pingsan.<\/p>\n

Indonesia klepek-klepek.<\/p>\n

MbS kok dilawan.<\/p>\n

Yang tertawa ngakak kayaknya Xi Jinping. Juga Narendra Modi.<\/p>\n

Indonesia juga bisa sedikit tersenyum. Apalagi Pakistan.<\/p>\n

Tiongkok yang baru terpukul virus Corona langsung mendapat sumber energi sangat murah. Termurah sepanjang sejarah reformasi ekonominya.<\/p>\n

Demikian juga India.<\/p>\n

Dan Indonesia akan ikut menikmati: subsidi BBM yang mencapai lebih Rp 100 triliun itu akan langsung hilang.<\/p>\n

Pertamina pun punya kesempatan kembali meraih laba gajah bengkak –kalau harga BBM telat diturunkan.<\/p>\n

Tapi Indonesia juga kehilangan pendapatan dari bagi hasil migas. Termasuk dari pajak-pajak di sektor itu. Penurunan pendapatan pemerintah ini bisa di atas Rp 100 triliun.<\/p>\n

Perusahaan-perusahaan migas Amerika –terutama perusahaan\u00a0shale gas<\/em>\u00a0yang lagi gairah-gairahnya– langsung bisa pingsan. Harga saham mereka di pasar modal bisa langsung terjungkal.<\/p>\n

Biaya memproduksi gas dari retakan bebatuan itu bisa setara 45 dolar\/barel. Kalau harga minyak hanya 30 dolar\/barel matilah mereka.<\/p>\n

Jadi, Saudi ini lagi marah ke Rusia atau ke Amerika?<\/p>\n

Bagi Saudi kemarahannya itu disertai hitungan matang-emosional: biaya produksi migas di Saudi hanya 20 dolar\/barel. Dengan menjual 30 dolar\/barel masih bisa laba 10 dolar\/barel. Dikalikan 12 juta. Dikalikan 30 hari. Dikalikan lagi 12 bulan.<\/p>\n

Tolong hitungkan berapa labanya setahun.<\/p>\n

Di Indonesia, biaya produksi minyak mentah itu di sekitar 40 dolar\/barel. Kalau harga jualnya 30 dolar\/barel Anda pun bisa membuat\u00a0corporate decision<\/em>: tutup saja.<\/p>\n

Rusia juga tidak bisa memproduksi minyak mentah dengan 30 dolar\/barel. Ladang minyaknya di laut. Yang di darat pun pipanya harus selalu dipanasi –agar tidak beku, agar bisa mengalir. Biaya memanasi pipa itu menambah dolar\/barel.<\/p>\n

Dengan harga minyak 30 dolar\/barel ini ada yang ikut sekarat:\u00a0Green energy<\/em>. Ibarat kaca dilempari batu serpihannya membuat luka di mana-mana.<\/p>\n

Adakah ini hanya drama satu babak? Ataukah perang Baratayudha dengan lakon MbS Tiwikrama? (dis)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Oleh : Dahlan Iskan Kejadian ini benar-benar sulit…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":9200,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[110],"tags":[113,112,773],"newstopic":[],"class_list":["post-9199","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-catatan-dahlan","tag-catatan-harian","tag-dahlan-iskan","tag-dahlanis"],"yoast_head":"\nMbS Tiwikrama | Harian Halmahera<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/harianhalmahera.com\/?p=9199\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"id_ID\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"MbS Tiwikrama | Harian Halmahera\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Oleh : Dahlan Iskan Kejadian ini 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